Preview: UEFA Euro2016 – Qualifying Draw

You probably already know that 2016 UEFA European Championship will be played in France, but maybe you don’t know that the competion format changed a lot, it has been enlarged from 16 to 24 teams, and basically the 1994 FIFA World Cup format has been adopted: there will be 6 Groups of 4 teams and the winner, the runner-up of each Group and the 4 best third placed teams will qualify for the (new) knock-out Round of 16, whose winners will play the Quarter-finals and so on.
Obviously the qualifying phase changed a bit: there will be eight Groups of 6 teams and 1 of 5 (with whom France will play friendly matches), and the winner and the runner-up of each Group, plus the best third placed overall, will qualify for the Final Stage, while the other third placed will play a Play-off Round.
Because some groups contain six teams and one just five, the matches against the sixth-placed team in each Group won’t be included to determine the ranking of third-placed teams.

In this post we introduce you the nine qualifying Groups: basically, it will be almost impossible for a “big gun” to miss qualification, and there will be more opportunities for “middle” teams !
All the predictions have been made by Maxi Lozzo.

GROUP A
Netherlands, Czech Republic, Turkey, Latvia, Iceland, Kazakhstan.

Netherlands can already book the hotel in France for 2016.
It will be an hard battle for the second and third place: Czech Rep. and Turkey will probably fight for the second place, but Iceland could have something to say for the third one.
A nightmare draw for Latvia (pot 4), that got the hardest opponent from pot 5 (Iceland), the second hardest ones from pot 3 and pot 6 (Turkey and Kazakhstan) and the third one from pot 1 (Netherlands), while a stronger NT could have drawn from pot 2. 

GROUP B
Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Israel, Wales, Cyprus, Andorra.

This is the second weakest Group: Belgium and Bosnia and Herzegovina are already in France, while Israel, maybe a little bit favourite, and Wales, a very unpredictable team, will battle for the third place, in order to play the Play-offs.
Cyprus could make them drop few very precious points.

GROUP C
Spain, Ukraine, Slovakia, Belarus, Macedonia, Luxembourg.

Spain will qualify without any big problem. Ukraine is the favorite one for the second place, that could also be contested by Slovakia, that anyway will have to pay attention to Belarus for the third place.
Belarus – Ukraine will be a very interesting match by a geopolitical point of view.

GROUP D
Germany, Republic of Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Georgia, Gibraltar.

Germany and Ireland are again in the same Group: the Germans can already book the tickets to France, while Ireland and Poland should fight for the second place.
Scotland is a very unpredictable team, it looks like they improved a bit under the new Manager, and could have something to say for the play-off spot, and maybe for second place as well.
Georgia could make Ireland, Poland and Scotland drop few points, and that could be a key factor to decide which team will end second and third. 

GROUP E
England, Switzerland, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, San Marino.

A quite weak Group, a very easy one for England: this time San Marino shouldn’t (potentially) eliminate them*.
Switzerland got again a lucky draw and is the favorite one for the second place, but a good run from Slovenia could relegate them to the third one.
If Estonia or Lithuania didn’t steal point eachother, one of them could surprise Slovenia for the third place and qualify for Play-offs, like Estonia did in 2012, and this time that Round should be contest only by “medium teams”.

*England didn’t qualify to 1994 World Cup, but they would have on goal difference if they had beaten San Marino by 7 goals, but they conceded a potentially decisive early goal, scored by Davide Gualtieri after 8.3 seconds (World Cup records), and “just” got an 1-7 away win.
Meanwhile Holland should  also have beaten by Poland, but that didn’t happen.

GROUP F
Greece, Hungary, Romania, Finland, Northern Ireland, Faroe Island.

This is the easiest and the most balanced Group. Greece isn’t a top National Team, but is very solid and very hard to beat, and should occupy one of the two qualifying positions.
For the other qualifying place and the Play-off spot, anything could happen among Hungary, Finland, Romania and maybe Northern Ireland too: probably the contest will be decided on the last matchday.
We would risk a bet on Finland: this is a now or never chance for them to qualify for the Group Stage of a major National Team Tournament.

GROUP G
Russia, Sweden, Austria, Montenegro, Moldova, Liechtenstein.

This isn’t an easy Group: despite that, Russia and Sweden sould clinch the two qualifing spots, while Austria and Montenegro will probably closely battle for the third place, but maybe the Balcanic team could have a slight chance to end in the second position too.
Dropping points to Moldova could mean elimination for Montenegro and Austria.
Austria and Sweden, and Montengro and Moldova have been drawn together again, after 2014 WC Qualifying.

GROUP H
Italy, Croatia, Norway, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Malta.

This is neither an easy, nor an impossible Group. Croatia, Norway and Bulgaria could all be able to defeat Italy, but they will probably steal points eachothers, so the Italians should have no big problems to reach the Final Stage and cross the Alps in 2016. Croatia is the favorite one for the second place, but it could be overtaken by Bulgaria, our favourite one for the Play-off spot, but Norway could also surprise them, because Bulgarian NT is (another) very unpredictable squad !
Italy, Bulgaria and Malta have been together in the same Group during 2014 World Cup Qualifying as well !

GROUP I
Portugal, Denmark, Serbia, Armenia, Albania

This is probably the hardest and the most unpredictable Group.
Portugal could drop several points, but should be able to end first or second, while for the other qualifying place and the Play-off spot anything could happen.
Denmark is usually a quite solid and regular team, and should end in the top three positions, while Serbia is a big question mark, they could both win the Group and be eliminated as well: the new manager’s impact will be a key element.
The Armenia, led by Mkhitaryan, that we have seen during 2014 WC Qualifying (they will face Denmark again) could be able to end in second or third position, while Albania is the team with less chances to qualify, but they performed quite well during 2014 WC Qualifiers, will surely make the other ones drop few very precious points, and they could have something to say for the third place.